A Way Out

If there is a way out of the current war in Lebanon/Israel short of walling off the entire region there are a few very basic alliances that have to be made, and a very succinct and cogent message that will have to be spread.

Currently there are probably few within the "Arab world" who would criticize the actions of Hezbollah (or certainly Hamas), even within Lebanon. Any ground-swell of opinion that Hezbollah should be disarmed evaporated during the first Israeli bombing campaign. Now there is, as NPR stated this morning, a divide being emphasized between the Islamists and the autocrats of Jordan and Egypt who deal with Israel. The bombing by Israel of countries harboring Islamist groups (and I will for the expediency of blogging classify Hezbollah as such, though I think a more refined distinction is necessary) who are only loosely connected to states does nothing but increase public support for these rebels. Nobody likes the hegemon fighting against the local boys and girls.

The first action that has to be taken is a complete cease fire - on the basis not of negotiations, but of establishing political normalcy between 3rd parties involved (Lebanese Gov. and perhaps the US or UK acting as proxy for Israel). Secondly the U.S. needs to open talks with Iran and Syria regarding Hezbollah. A disarmerment campaign in both states can be promoted with several carrots, such as development assistance, normalization of political relations (in Syria's case with both the U.S. and Lebanon), and development of nuclear power capability in Iran (- a message that enriched Uranium does not equal weaponization - there are major steps between the two - needs to be undertaken within the U.S.).

Of course isolating Hezbollah's support to the Shia population in Lebanon, and abroad potentially broadens the sectarian divide and further threatens Lebanese democracy. In order to forestall these occurrences it would be important to encourage and support moderate Iranian (and other) Shia clerics, provide vast amounts of economic and developmental assistance to southern Lebanon (UN or other multilateral org.), and there is also a need to integrate Hezbollah into a more normalized political process (ala Sinn Fein). This is not necessarily easy considering Lebanon's sectarian governmental structure, which of course also need to be addressed - or more likely needs to be put on a schedule to be addressed.

Now what to be done with a country like Israel? To equate Israel with other known aggressors (like Syria, Iraq under Saddam, etc.) is quite easy, and perhaps justified but does not suggest a diplomatic solution. Israel's policies are those of fear, despite and perhaps because of, having the most well equipped (the bomb?!) and trained Army in the region their only local response is one of unparalleled aggression. Like their one steadfast ally, the U.S., they have no qualms about acting unilaterally - and as such easily fail to promote actual positive changes through broader political action.

For starters, an arms embargo accompanied by a U.N. (and probably Congressional) resolution to step in, in the event that this encourages hostile powers to act against Israel. Secondly a U.N. force under Chapter 7 of the UN charter should be stationed on the Northern Israeli/Southern Lebanese boarder. Actions taken against the UN force by either side will be considered an policeable action, and will be responded to as such. An exchange of current political prisoners would probably be necessary, as would a new round of trials at the ICC for certain actors. Bombing of civilian targets is a crime under the 4th Geneva Convention, and should be treated as such for the military leaders on both sides. It is unlikely this will be enforced on either side, but equal arrest warrants should be issued, for parity sake.

There is a lack of real security on both sides of this issue, and until these needs are addressed internationally through diplomacy and development, and even perhaps through international defense forces there will be no resolution.