The Blog of Damocles

The Chronicles of Aaron Employed

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Location: Singers Glen, Virginia, United States

Monday, September 18, 2006

Gas Conspiracy Theory #528,522

Now, I don't want to sound like too much of a wacky conspiracy theorist here, but my natural skepticism is making me wonder about the gas prices. Usually gas prices fall a few cents at this time of year. Post labor-day reductions in usage have long been the reasoning behind this - and perhaps this is the reason (coupled with the discovery of a large deep water source in the Gulf of Mexico) for the 40+ cent drop in the past 5 weeks. On the other hand there are just too many other "coincidences" that would make me think otherwise.

1. BP's Alaskan operations are at a standstill - reducing the amount of piped in "domestic" oil, ergo more is being shipped by tankers burning fuel bought prior to the recent price drop.
2. Most US suppliers have been under investigation for price fixing for the past year.... (and now aren't... surprisingly...)
3. There's a tight election in a month-and-a-half. (compare tight races in House and Senate to gas prices...)
4. This is the most oil friendly executive since the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890.
5. GM/Ford both of whose fleets are dominated by sub 20mpg SUVs are tanking - taking several hundred thousand jobs (and votes) down with them.
6. The diesel refining process has been changing to account for the new low sulfur regulations, thus introducing another layer of cost into the refining business.
7. Increasing instability in Iraq, Egypt and the -stans should be conspiring to raise prices on imports.
8. China's increasing love affair with the automobile is requiring a 5-7% growth in oil imports per year (I expect that will show an exponential growth pattern, not simply maintain the steady growth rate.... which will mean more oil).

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